The private residential market started 2026 with a nuanced 4% dip in overall median prices. However, this wasn't a broad decline; rather, it was a shift in transaction mix, with Executive Condos (ECs) jumping from 7% to 22% of total market volume.

• The Outperformers

1. Executive Condominiums: The quarter’s standout performer with a 16% price gain. Volume tripled to ~1,500 units, led by Rivelle Tampines, which set a new district PSF record.

2. District 10 (Tanglin, Holland, Bukit Timah): Median prices surged 40%+. Demand remains concentrated in large-format freehold resale units (2,800–6,000 sq ft), with several transactions crossing the $10M mark.

3. OCR Momentum: The only segment to see a volume uptick (+35%), resulting in a 5% price growth.

• The Laggards

1. District 12 (Balestier, Toa Payoh): The weakest performer at -16% QoQ, impacted by a higher volume of smaller-quantum units at The Orie and Gem Residences.

2. RCR Fatigue: Transaction volumes halved, leading to a modest 2% price softening.

3. Strata Landed: Recorded a 7% drop, though this is highly volatile due to low transaction volume.

• Key Market Insight

The headline price drop is deceptive. It is largely driven by a high volume of lower-priced EC units entering the data pool. Meanwhile, the landed segment remains stable, with D19 (Hougang, Punggol, Sengkang) and D28 (Seletar, Yio Chu Kang) continuing to lead in popularity and clocking 8-9% growth. 

The latest figures show a market reaching an inflection point. While overall median price growth has flattened to a marginal 0.8% QoQ, the "million-dollar" segment continues to decouple from the broader market.

Key Takeaways:

• Growth Divergence:

Kallang/Whampoa led the pack with nearly 20% QoQ growth (14% YoY), spearheaded by high-demand young 4-room flats and flats near MRT stations. Conversely, Clementi saw a 7% QoQ dip, largely due to a shift in transaction mix toward smaller units at lower price quantum.

• Volume Fatigue:

Overall transaction volumes are down YoY. Among the top three most active towns (Woodlands, Tampines, Sengkang), only Woodlands bucked the trend with an increase in activity.

3-room flats saw the sharpest volume decline at about 10%.

• The Million-Dollar Norm:

High-value transactions are up 18% YoY, now accounting for almost 7% of all resale deals.

Top Estates: Toa Payoh (72 deals), Bukit Merah (57), and Queenstown (55)

The $1.7M Record: A 4-room unit at Dawson Road (Queenstown) set a new benchmark in February 2026.

The Holdouts: Only three towns: Choa Chu Kang, Jurong West and Sembawang have yet to record a million-dollar transaction.

The Next Milestone:

We are rapidly approaching the era of the "Million-Dollar Town."

While Bukit Timah’s overall median now sits at $1.02M, the low transaction volume there means large flat types can easily skew the data.

However, the million-dollar threshold is more firmly established when isolating specific segments.

For 4-room and 5-room flats: Bukit Timah, Queenstown, and Toa Payoh all now command median prices above $1M.

The Bottom Line:

The market is stabilizing for "bread-and-butter" flats, but the appetite for premium, centrally-located HDBs remains aggressive.

We aren't just looking at million-dollar flats anymore; we are looking at million-dollar neighbourhoods. 

URA reports a 3.3% price growth for 2025, yet my dashboard shows a 10% jump.

This isn't an error but a reflection of how a "bumper crop" of new launches and landed transactions is skewing the financial reality for buyers. Here is why the median price in our market is outrunning the official index:

1. The "New Sale" Gravity

The URA Index uses stratified regression to "smooth" price changes so a surge in expensive new launches doesn't falsely signal that old condos are suddenly worth more. My dashboard, however, tracks the actual capital outlay of today's buyers.

The Premium Gap: New Sale PSF has hit ~$2,800, maintaining a staggering 65% premium over Resale PSF (~$1,700). While new launch units are getting smaller, the size reduction fails to offset the massive PSF premium.

The Volume Shift: In 2025, new launch non landed properties volume (excluding executive condominiums) surged by 70% to over 10,600 units.

Including executive condos and landed properties, the volume grew 65% to 12,000+ properties.

The Result: URA reported the value of property is stable (+3.3%), but the dashboard shows the cost of entry for the average active buyer has jumped 10% because the market is increasingly dominated by "newness" and its associated price tag.

2. The GCB Proxy: Detached Houses at $30M

Wealth preservation remains the priority for UHNWIs, even with high ABSD rates.

Despite being a smaller percentage of the total market, the absolute value within the landed homes segment is rising.

Detached house volumes at a 3-year high moved 9% year-on-year, with the aggregated median price hitting $10.6 million.

Using the dashboard to drill down into "GCB Proxies" (Detached, D10/11/20/21/23, Min 10,000 sqft built-up):

2025: 26 transactions, $30.1M median.

2024: 21 transactions, $26.5M median.

3. Yield Compression: The Investment Reality

Rental yields have been compressing since 2H 2023 because sales prices (fuelled by that new-sale premium) are simply outrunning rents.

Landed Yields: Sub-2%

Non-Landed: ~2.5%

In prime districts like D15 or D6, returns are now almost entirely dependent on capital appreciation rather than recurring income. If you're hunting for yield, the data points specifically toward D2 (CBD) or D25 (Woodlands).

A Technical Note:

URA's Index is designed to measure "pure" price changes by applying weights to property characteristics. My dashboard is designed to show consumer behaviour which is what the market is actually transacting at today.

I’ve updated the dashboard with the latest 2025 caveats (note that it is not mandatory to lodge one, therefore the dashboard won't be a full representation of the market).

The updated UX provides further granularity by slicing by district, region, sale type, unit type, or property type. 

1. The "Big Chill" is real

After the frenzy of 2024, transaction volumes began to cool in Q3 and Q4. For the first time in years, the data shows price growth finally normalizing.

2. Town Trivia: Winners & Losers

● Clementi took the crown for highest growth, largely fueled by a "5-room fever" in the resale market.

● The Central Area actually saw negative growth, specifically in the 4-room segment. Even the most prestigious postcodes have a price ceiling!

3. The "Storey" Story

We would assume higher floors = higher prices, but the dashboard reveals a plateau:

● Floor Parity: Flats in the first 5 floors and the next 10 floors are now priced roughly the same islandwide.

● The Altitude Limit: Interestingly, the price premium doesn't really apply once you go above the 30th floor. At a certain point, a view is just a view.

4. Million-Dollar Madness

The "Million Dollar Club" grew by over 50% this year, but with some surprises:

● Toa Payoh is the undisputed king with the most million-dollar transactions.

● The 3-Room Barrier: We still haven't seen a million-dollar 3-room flat. The record? A Bidadari unit that went for $930k in October 2025.

● The Ultimate Record: Queenstown’s Dawson Road still holds the throne at $1.66 million.

5. What are people actually paying for?

It comes down to two extremes: "Young & Central" (10–15 year old flats in prime spots) or "Old & Oversized" (older units larger than 140sqm). Space is becoming the new luxury.

💡The Bottom Line:

While we talk about $1.6 million records, the median HDB resale price still sits in the low $600k range. That is a staggering $1 million gap between the "average" home and the "trophy" HDB for Singapore's residential market.